Friends…

Get a hold of your favorite bottle of whiskey. An IPO is set to debut this week, and it’s not only got a chance to be an instant winner, but It’s also a long-term hold.

You see, Ethos Technologies, ticker: LIFE, isn’t just another overhyped app that dies after six months. 

This one’s built different. 

It’s life insurance, digitized. Sounds odd, sure. But think of it as Netflix versus Blockbuster 15 years ago. But instead of movie delivery, it’s for life insurance plans. 

Netflix killed Blockbuster because of convenience and near instant access. Ethos? It’s all about convenience, and near instant access.

Already 550,000 people said "yes" without ever meeting an agent. That’s half a million households who skipped the “so, what’ll happen to us if you head off to the big farm in the sky tomorrow” speech over breakfast.

Revenue? $255 million last year. Was $160 million in 2023. Jumped almost 60% while most fintech’s bled. And guess what? Bottom line’s in the black!

Black… as in the company already makes money. 

Banks like the ones below don’t line up for break-even stories. 

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Citizens, William Blair… 

Those are the guys who price your IPO at $18-$20 when they could have said $25. Means they believe in the market for the stock at this range… 

And may have left some short-term meat on the bone for retail.

Here’s why it matters long-term. 

Once the platform has even more data… real claims, real drop-off rates, real who-lived-who-died-and-why stats, its AI gets scary good at pricing. 

Premiums tighten. Margins balloon. Competitors like Ladder, Bestow? They’ll look like dinosaurs. 

And Ethos will have first-mover lock. Plus, life insurance is sleepy. Which means nobody’s paying attention right now. Berkshire Hathaway, by the way, is in the life insurance biz, so Buffet knows the deal.

Perfect for us. 

We’re not flipping for a three-dollar gain on debut. We’re talking about the potential for solid gains over 4-8 months, with plans to possibly hold some of the position even longer.

Look, I get it, people are tired of IPOs that gap up and dump. 

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But this one seems a lot different. No crypto. No meme. Just math. And math says: profitable company, growing revenue, backed by Wall Street’s sharpest elbows.

You see, in the end, I want to treat an IPO debut like a good whiskey. 

Sure, we can pop the wooden barrel a year early and enjoy something that tastes good. But in the end, I’m going to let this one sit, watch it mature and take a sip (sell some) when I’m sure it is going to be ready.

Patience here, friends, is a virtue. It’s something I’ve learned over the years.

Quick aside:

When I was younger, I used to drink moonshine and really junkie bottom shelf whiskey…  because I just didn’t have money or patience for anything else.

Now, as I’ve grown older, it’s all about the good stuff. The whiskey (and stocks) that’ve properly aged. 

As I believe Ethos will.

Speaking of whiskey (again)…

This Christmas, a family member gave me a bottle of something special. One that I found to be right up my alley… Blantons single barrel bourbon for the Japanese market.

My wife and I enjoyed a sip or two (or 4) for probably 10-12 straight evenings. Just a little nip here and there, after dinner.

I loved it. Unfortunately for me, it’s all gone now. But I’ll to get another bottle of something else fantastic…

And take a small “sip” every week as I watch Ethos in the long-run.

If you’re a whiskey/whisky/bourbon drinker, let me know about your favorites in our social media channels. 

I’d love to give your recommendation a try.

Cheers,

-Tim