Friends,
Happy New Year.
Let’s quickly look back at 2025, and not only because everyone else is doing it today…
But because it turned out to be spectacular for the IPO market.
We kicked off the year kind of slow…
Everyone was holding their breath after the volatility, inflation and interest rate hangover from prior years. But then… boom!
Things exploded.
By the end of the year, we saw over 340 companies go public in the US alone, raising north of $50 billion in proceeds.
That’s the busiest year since 2021, with activity up more than 54% from 2024.
Tech, AI, crypto, healthcare, you name it, everything fired on all cylinders once the window cracked open wide in Q2 and never really closed.
The performances?
Some were nothing short of insane. A ton of new listings popped hard on day one and kept climbing, especially the ones tied to AI infrastructure, bio/healthcare or anything with real revenue momentum.
Investors were starving for growth stories after years of caution, and when the Fed eased and markets hit all-time highs, money flooded in like it was 2021 all over again.
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Take this massive healthcare distribution player that came out in December, the biggest IPO of the entire year.
They priced at $29 a share, right in the middle of the range after upsizing the deal, raising over $6 billion in one of the cleanest books you’ll ever see.
By the way, it was one I recommended to IPO Stream Premium members.
It opened strong at $33, popped to the mid-40s on day one, had everyone thinking it was off to the moon.
But then some profit-taking kicked in, and the broader market got a little choppy. So as of today, it’s settled right around $41 and change… up 44% from its offering price.
A solid gain from the IPO price in under two weeks. The volume’s still massive, institutions seem to be adding on dips, so most folks who got allocation are sleeping pretty happy. This particular company, in my view, is a long term hold.
As I’ve explained in the past, I believe it may eventually begin paying dividends. So, if you’re holding it now, I suggest you think about continuing to hold it.
And if/when dividends do get paid, I suggest reinvesting them back into the company to take advantage of the “magic” of compounding.
Anyhoo…
Stuff like this happened all year, quiet pricing on some names, monster pricing on others, then massive runs once the story clicked with funds.
We had monster runs like CoreWeave in the AI cloud space now up almost 85% from its offering…
Circle crushing it in crypto, now up over 150% from its offering.
Even the smaller sized issues are still sitting on triple digit gains.
Wall Street Isn’t Warning You, But This Chart Might
Vanguard just projected public markets may return only 5% annually over the next decade. In a 2024 report, Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 may return just 3% annually for the same time frame—stats that put current valuations in the 7th percentile of history.
Translation? The gains we’ve seen over the past few years might not continue for quite a while.
Meanwhile, another asset class—almost entirely uncorrelated to the S&P 500 historically—has overall outpaced it for decades (1995-2024), according to Masterworks data.
Masterworks lets everyday investors invest in shares of multimillion-dollar artworks by legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.
And they’re not just buying. They’re exiting—with net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5% among their 23 sales.*
Wall Street won’t talk about this. But the wealthy already are. Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…
*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.
When the market treats new issues this well, it just pulls more companies off the sidelines. So yeah, 2025 has been nothing short of spectacular, easily the best IPO vintage in half a decade.
Now fast-forward into 2026.
It feels like we’re just getting warmed up. The pipeline is absolutely stacked, private equity needs exits, rates are stable, and investor appetite is still ravenous for anything with growth and a path to profits.
If the overall market stays cooperative (and all signs point that way), 2026 could blow 2025 out of the water in both volume and size.
The one everyone’s whispering about, the Mother of All Deals?
The MOAD?
SpaceX.
Elon’s been pretty clear the Starlink business is maturing fast enough that a spin-out IPO makes sense, and the latest chatter is they’re targeting sometime in 2026 with an internal valuation goal around $1.5 trillion.
Yeah, trillion with a T.
Should it happen, at that valuation, it would dwarf everything we’ve ever seen… probably raising $30 billion-plus in one shot and instantly becoming one of the most valuable companies on the planet.
Of course, whether it actually hits that number (or goes public) depends on Starlink subscriber growth and margins…
But even at a discount it would be the Mother of All Deals and suck up eager investors like a turbo charged Dyson.
Here’s the point: the IPO party that restarted in 2025 looks like it’s turning into a multi-year run.
So, if you waited on the sidelines in 2025 and watched deals you liked double or triple right out of the gate…
2026 may give you another shot, only potentially bigger.
It’s why subscribing to IPO Stream Premium (HERE) is so important. It’s only $9 a month…
And having someone in your corner who spots the right entries early, before the hype train leaves the station, can make all the difference between buying at the right price, or chasing it 50% higher a month later.
Happy New Year.
Tim
