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As you may already know (If you don’t know, you can read more about my bio HERE)…
I’ve been picking IPOs for a long time. Long enough to spot the ones wearing heavy makeup, sharing their “selfies” from odd angles, looking to grab the attention of anyone who’s foolish enough to buy what they’re selling…
From the real keepers… Natural beauties, the ones that will succeed in the market, whether we pay attention or not.
Now, I’m not some Wall Street suit yelling into phones, pushing for commissions on anything I can get my hands on.
No. I don’t get paid to push things out the door. And there are no commissions here. And I’ve never spent a day working for a big brokerage firm…
I get paid to perform, and that’s it.
Unlike far too many Wall Streeters, I read what matters and trust my gut on the rest. Because in the IPO market, beauty is only skin deep. It’s what’s behind the painted mask that matters.
You see, the first thing I read is who’s underwriting. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan-they’re like the friend who vets your date.
If they’re not there, especially for large-cap IPOs, why bother? Because nine times out of ten, when they’re on the ticket, the company isn’t total smoke. Not perfect - just less smoke and more substance.
Let’s take Klarna for example. The buy-now-pay-later company that hit the NYSE in September ‘25. I recommended it because I believe it’s a long-term play.
Why? Goldman was lead underwriter, alongside JPMorgan. These guys don’t touch just anything; they hope to price it right, and fairly, and back their deals with real due diligence.
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Klarna’s revenue was humming at 35% year-over-year growth, with user base exploding to 150 million. No red flags for me in the S-1. No massive burn rate eating profits alive. I saw the edge in their global partnerships, like with Shopify and Amazon.
It wasn’t hype; it was scalable. That’s the kind of debut I swipe right on. One I believe is a keeper.
But on the flip side, some IPOs scream “Catfish”, especially without those big-bank stamps of approval.
Lineage Logistics went public in July ’24 - no Goldman types in sight. Just a mix of mid-tier players like Barclays. Yes. In my opinion, Barclay’s not on the same level when it comes to this particular market… IPOs.
Lineage looked shiny on paper- a warehouse empire, $5 billion in revenue.
But dig in, and it’s all debt: $18 billion load from acquisitions, interest payments chewing 20% of cash flow. Stock popped 10% on day one, then tanked 30% in two weeks on earnings whispers of slowing logistics demand.
It was a pass for me because the filings (below the thick makeup) showed lousy revenue curves-up in good quarters, flat in bad.
That’s classic overpromise: pretty roadshow slides, plenty of makeup, but the backend is a mess. Oh, and as of this writing, it’s trading for less than half its opening tick.
You see, without top underwriters forcing transparency, filings hide the cracks. It’s like dating someone who won’t show you their face… probably because it’s a disaster, or you’re being Catfished.
So, here’s my method, straight up…
I start with the S-1 like it’s a background check. Revenue curve? Needs to look like a steady climb. Aim for 30-50% growth over two years, nothing spiky. Margins matter too: gross above 50%, or it’s bleeding too fast.
Valuations? Non-negotiable. I cap forward price-to-sales at 10x unless there’s a killer moat, like Klarna’s payment network effects, locking in merchants.
No edge? If competitors can quickly and efficiently copy it… No dice.
Then I stress the underwriters. My data show Goldman’s leads, over the longer term, average 20% outperformance in the first year.
I’ve tracked it in my spreadsheets. They push for clean audits, realistic pricing. If it’s just regional banks, I dig twice as hard for dilution risks or insider lockup games. Plus, regional banks themselves carry risk.
Post-IPO, I watch: if shares flood out after 90-180 days, and execs sell big, I’m out.
Risks? Plenty. Markets turn, and even Goldman’s picks can dip- especially if rates spike and growth stocks wobble. But this weeds out the duds.
I’ve nailed winners that could’ve turned small bets into fantastic gains… Passed on some “traps” that could’ve wiped me out. And yes, I’ve had my share of losers. I am human, after all. I make tons of mistakes.
But winning in the IPO market is not magic; it’s method.
Spot the real deal, skip the catfish, and let the winners run.
The next big winner is always out there.
Speaking of which, around the end of the month and into early November, there are two Goldman-backed IPOs brewing that look like they’ll pass the litmus test for recommendation.
One has that steady revenue hum and an edge in emerging tech partnerships, the other’s flashing clean margins and scalable user growth without the debt drama.
Keep an eye out, IPO Stream Premium subscribers, because it’s about to break wide open. No catfish. Just natural beauties.
-Tim
